Webinar—How can mathematical modeling be used for country-level, HIV strategic planning? (9 May 2019, 9–10 a.m. EDT)

2 May 2019


If you like watching fashion models on Project Runway, wait till you see Project SOAR’s mathematical models!


Join Project SOAR for a webinar featuring the use of mathematical models in informing HIV policy and programs around voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).


A mathematical model is a real-world problem represented in mathematical form. Mathematical models are used to make predictions and test assumptions, especially when answering questions directly in the real world is not possible. From informing program planning and implementation, to supporting advocacy, to tracking progress and impact, modeling has played—and continues to play—a critical role in shaping national and global HIV policies.



Alison Cheng, U. S. Agency for International Development



Mathematical modeling to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of oral PrEP for HIV prevention in Eswatini
Katharine Kripke of Project SOAR/Avenir Health will describe how mathematical modeling was used to assist Eswatini’s national HIV program in planning for the introduction and scale-up of oral PrEP. She will present results from modeling the effects of PrEP rollout to different risk groups and geographic areas on HIV infections averted and cost-effectiveness. She will also discuss how mathematical modeling helps countries think through strategic resource allocation decisions about priority populations.



Using modeling results to inform health policy: A framework for success
A case study of VMMC scale-up in Eastern and Southern Africa
Modeling contributes to health program planning by allowing users to estimate future outcomes that are otherwise difficult to evaluate. Yet, modeling results are often not easily translated into practical policies. Michel Tchuenche of Project SOAR/Avenir Health will discuss the barriers and enabling factors that allow models to better inform health decision-making by showcasing examples from nine countries of stakeholder engagement in VMMC modeling.