Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Population and cost estimates for national operational plans in Mozambique, Namibia, Kenya, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe


The issue
Recent analyses in several sub-Saharan African countries have prompted re-examination of the target age groups and focus subnational regions for country voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) strategies and operational plans.


Our approach
We are supporting the VMMC program of the National Ministry of Health in five countries by providing impact analyses and VMMC target estimates disaggregated by province, district, and age. SOAR is conducting these analyses with the Decision-Maker’s Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) 2.0, which utilizes demographic and HIV incidence and prevalence data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, and Spectrum/AIDS Impact Model projections for sub-national units. The results are being discussed and validated with country stakeholders prior to finalizing the estimates. The model is being incorporated into an online modeling database using the country-validated inputs, so that stakeholders in country can continue to query the model as their needs change.


The impact
These data will inform strategic decision making with regard to specific age and geographic targeting of the VMMC program, the potential cost, and estimates of potential impact.